Let me be clear….about economic impact

The latest episode of who said what about leaving the EU focuses on the impact upon the UK economy.

Before the Vote

Boris Johnson ( standing in front of that bus ) rubbished what he called the Remain side’s ‘propaganda’ and claimed that the decision to leave would not bring economic gloom and doom, ( see snippet within this Telegraph article ). He claimed that fears of the economic impact were ‘wildly exaggerated‘ and hit out at ‘scaremongering‘ ( see here ).   There would, he said ‘be no economic shock‘ ( here ).

Boris, as much, if not more, than any other politician attacked Remain for ‘Project Fear‘, something I wrote about at the time ( see Project Fear )

Michael Gove compared economists negative predictions about the post Brexit economy with Nazis (specifically those Nazi scientists who criticized Einstein’s theories though he did acknowledge that this may have been because Einstein was Jewish ). He said that Britain would be ‘better off outside the EU‘ ( see BBC here )

Of becoming Prime Minister he categorically denied any interest. ‘There are lots of talented people who could be prime minister, but count me out … Whatever poster you put up, do not put up one of me!‘ ( see Guardian )

George Osborne wrote about the immediate impact of leaving  ‘recession and lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000, GDP would be 3.6% smaller, average real wages would be lower, inflation higher, sterling weaker, house prices would be hit and public borrowing would rise‘ and that was the more positive of the scenarios envisaged by HMT ( see Report )

After the Vote

Boris Johnson still claims that the UK will claw back about £350m a week after Brexit ( Guardian ) though his fellow Brexiters distanced themselves from this promise, pronto. So Nigel Farage, first, tried to say he hadn’t made this claim ( while standing in front of the aforementioned bus ) then said the £350m a week claim was ‘one of the mistakes that, I think, the Leave campaign has made’ ( NYT ).

George Osborne lost his job, though he now lambasts the woman who sacked him from the London Evening Standard newspaper.

There was a dramatic fall in the value of the pound ( this has rallied but is still 15% down on the euro as compared to before the Vote ), inflation has risen to over 3% ( though the Bank of England has attempted to manage this ) the property market has slowed. But the economy has not yet hit a recession and unemployment has reduced. However, the OBR has down graded UK growth expectations for the next five years and the OECD says the UK went fro the top of the G7 league table to the bottom in the year after the Vote. The Global Institute summarises where we are now in its recent Post

Michael Gove stood for the post of Leader of the Conservative Party, in fact Prime Minister. His fellow Brexiteer Boris Johnson was less than happy. ( See here – I couldn’t resist, even though it is the Mail ).

David Davis, Secretary of State for Exiting the EU said that the government had conducted 51 detailed sectoral analyses and Impact Assessments of Brexit on the UK economy. Parliament forced a vote so as to have sight of these, which Davis opposed. He lost. He later said none of them existed ( see video here ).

If you want some meaty economic reading the London School of Economics Report and the OECD show economic impact (the latter before the Vote). PWC drafted a Report for the CBI which looks, inter alia, at the impact of going on to World Trade Organisation rules. The Institute for Fiscal Studies drafted its own Report, including a breakdown of figures, the Executive Summary gives an overall idea.

I was going to do more on the economy but have since found the Brexit Record web-site set up by Henry Porter, writer and journalist ( for The Observer, the Guardian and editor of Vanity Fair ).  This collates reports and media stories by region and by sector. It’s wide ranging and the information on it is sometimes startling.  I recommend that you take a look.

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